Summary of Economic Survey 2013
Indian economy is likely to grow between 6.1 per cent to 6.7 per cent
in 2013-14 as the downturn is more or less over and the economy is
looking up. Following the slowdown induced by the global financial
crisis in 2008-09, the Indian economy responded strongly to fiscal and
monetary stimulus and achieved a growth rate of 8.6 per cent and 9.3 per
cent respectively in 2009-10 and 2010-11, but due to a combination of
both external and domestic factors, the economy decelerated growing at
6.2 per cent and an estimated 5 per cent in 2011-12 and 2012-13
respectively.
The Economic Survey 2012-13, presented by the Finance Minister Shri P.
Chidambaram in the Lok Sabha predicts that the global economy is also
likely to recover in 2013 and various government measures will help in
improving the Indian economy's outlook for 2013-14.
While India's recent slowdown is partly rooted in external causes,
domestic causes are also important. The slowdown in the rate of growth
of services in 2011-12 at 8.2 per cent, and particularly in 2012-13 to
6.6 percent from the double-digit growth of the previous six years,
contributed significantly to slowdown in the overall growth of the
economy, while some slowdown could also be attributed to the lower
growth in agriculture and industrial activities. But despite the
slowdown, the services sector has shown more resilience to worsening
external conditions than agriculture and industry.
Economic Survey 2013: New wine in an old bottle
This
year’s Economic Survey 2013 has been prepared under a very grim
economic scenario. It is also the first survey steered by the CEA,
Raghuram Rajan, and quite plausibly might just be the last one under the
current government. There is justifiable curiosity among the economists
to see whether there are any definite imprints of Rajan and his team on
the survey. I guess they will not have to look hard and they would not
be disappointed either.
While a large chunk of the survey is the usual
narrative on the data, trends, and prospects of the economy, it includes
an interesting new chapter, titled “Seizing the Demographic Dividend”.
The chapter provides a thorough and instructive discussion on the
sectoral transformation of the Indian economy, and highlights the
peculiarities of this process in the Indian context. In order to do so,
it draws liberally on the cutting edge research done in India and
elsewhere, and discusses the key reform initiatives to address the
peculiarities of the growth process.
The survey reminds that the agriculture sector in India is shedding labour way too slowly, as a result of which a large share of the labour force remains trapped in low-productive agricultural activities. The industry sector is in its own woeful state of affairs, wherein the share of industry in GDP has remained stagnant for almost two decades. Comparing the Indian experience with that of China, Indonesia and South Korea, at similar stages of their respective reform trajectories, shows that the size of the
- See more at: http://www.financialexpress.com/news/economic-survey-2013-new-wine-in-an-old-bottle/1081045#sthash.nCiBogrg.dpuf
Economic Survey 2013: New wine in an old bottle
Poonam Gupta: Feb 28 2013, 08:42 IST
This
year’s Economic Survey 2013 has been prepared under a very grim
economic scenario. It is also the first survey steered by the CEA,
Raghuram Rajan, and quite plausibly might just be the last one under the
current government. There is justifiable curiosity among the economists
to see whether there are any definite imprints of Rajan and his team on
the survey. I guess they will not have to look hard and they would not
be disappointed either.
While a large chunk of the survey is the usual
narrative on the data, trends, and prospects of the economy, it includes
an interesting new chapter, titled “Seizing the Demographic Dividend”.
The chapter provides a thorough and instructive discussion on the
sectoral transformation of the Indian economy, and highlights the
peculiarities of this process in the Indian context. In order to do so,
it draws liberally on the cutting edge research done in India and
elsewhere, and discusses the key reform initiatives to address the
peculiarities of the growth process.
The survey reminds that the agriculture sector in India is shedding labour way too slowly, as a result of which a large share of the labour force remains trapped in low-productive agricultural activities. The industry sector is in its own woeful state of affairs, wherein the share of industry in GDP has remained stagnant for almost two decades. Comparing the Indian experience with that of China, Indonesia and South Korea, at similar stages of their respective reform trajectories, shows that the size of the
No comments:
Post a Comment