MUMBAI: The country's austerity push in a
budget
to be unveiled on Thursday threatens to have the unintended impact of
adding to inflationary pressure, hampering chances for rapid
interest rate cuts that the government wants, central bank officials said.
The government plans to cut public spending by up to 10 percent in the
fiscal year starting in April, officials involved in the budget
preparations told Reuters last week, as
Finance Minister P. Chidambaram struggles to bring down the
fiscal deficit to 4.8 percent of
gross domestic product and stave off a credit rating downgrade.
Yet, officials in the Reserve Bank of India fear that cutting capital
spending on projects with strong multiplier effects like building roads
and bridges, won't help revive growth, which is seen as a priority if
the
economy is to avoid a downward spiral.
And they also worry that maintaining populist spending on subsidies for
food, fuel, fertiliser and cooking gas will push up prices. While this
spending, fuels consumer demand, especially for food, it is also a key
driver of inflation in India.

"If spending on social schemes
comes at the expense of capital expenditure, it will be bad," an
official with direct knowledge of policymaking told Reuters. "Inflation
will go up, and there will be
food inflation from the demand side."
But with an election just a year away, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's
beleaguered government, facing a backlash for raising fuel prices as
well as a string of corruption scandals, is in a bind.
It needs
to get its fiscal house in order, but cutting the outlay on populist
schemes would alienate voters, already upset over stubbornly high
inflation.
"Given that election is around the corner, it would
be difficult for the government to cut its social outlay. Cutting
investment expenditure is a soft target," a second official involved
with monetary policy-making told Reuters.
Asia's third-largest
economy is on track to grow as little as 5 percent in the fiscal year
that ends next month, its worst in a decade, even as inflation remains
sticky near 7 percent.
To get the economy going, the government
should ideally be spending on infrastructure, which would in turn kick
start stalled private sector investment.
Investment in
technology, better transport and storage for India's vast agriculture
sector could also help dampen supply-side inflation pressures by
reducing wastage.
Instead, some of the
savings on
capital investment planned in the budget will be reallocated to help fund a $22.27 billion
food security bill, officials have told Reuters.
The central bank has privately expressed its discomfort to the
finance ministry over high government spending towards consumption.
"The
RBI
wants less non-planned expenditure and more capital expenditure because
it supports growth," a third senior official said. Non-planned
expenditure refers mostly to subsidies and consumption-based spending.
None of the officials wanted to be identified because they are not allowed to speak to media.
The RBI is also concerned about a trillion
rupee
($18.42 billion) cash hoard that the government has piled up during the
closing weeks of the current fiscal year as it desperately tries to
bring the fiscal deficit within a targeted 5.3 percent.
Economists believe the government is holding onto the cash so it will be
able to borrow less in 2013/14, and keep the credit rating agencies at
bay.
The trouble is that taking that money out of circulation
instead of putting it to work puts another drag on an economy already
losing momentum, and dilutes the impact of a recent rate cut as banks
keep deposit rates high in order to attract funds.
The RBI has
long resisted pressure from the government to cut interest rates, but
relented slightly in January by reducing its policy repo rate by 25
basis points to 7.75 percent.
Making its first cut in nine
months, the central bank warned that high food prices could exacerbate
inflation in the latter half of 2013.
After that cut and fall in the annual
inflation rate to 6.62 percent in January, the lowest in three years, economists have stuck with expectations that
interest rates will only be able to come down another 0.75 percentage point over the course of the year.
Chidambaram wants the RBI to cut rates further to stimulate growth and
in the bargain reduce the fiscal deficit, which would in turn lower
government borrowing and spur private investment. That argument could be
at risk if the central bank isn't convinced that inflation is under
control.
RBI Governor
Duvvuri Subbarao
made clear last weekend, while attending a G20 summit in Moscow, that
the central bank is looking beyond the headline figure of the
government's
budget deficit, and examining the type of spending cuts planned.
"It's very important, for growth to accelerate and for inflation to remain contained, that
investments
take place. For private investment to take place the government has to
spend on capital expenditure, on infrastructure," Subbarao said.
"So while we look at the headline fiscal deficit number in the budget,
we will look also at the quality of fiscal adjustment in determining our
monetary policy stance."
ABDUL WAHEED
PGDM 2nd SEM.
IIMT COLLEGE OF MANAGEMENT